It’s mostly just scientists and climatologists.
So lots of people have come around on this ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ thing. Very good development, indeed. Is it too late to apologize for kyoto et al? Well, as the gas pumps illustrate, the sweet crude is now up over 130 buck$. Ouch. And still climbing? Will it ever stop?
(image source)
Why is this happening? Well, as legendary OK/TX oil & natural gas man T. Boone Pickens describes in the video below, it’s quite simple.
The cost/barrel is rising because demand for oil is now greater than supply. Crazy right?
Sounds like a joke. But, Pickens explains, we’re no longer in a situation where OPEC is manipulating production, but rather, the global demand for oil has now recently outpaced production capacity. See the video here????????.
Well, to see more about that there oil production capacity, check out the graph below. As you can see, the experts predict that we are about to reach the world production peak and then start falling. This is serious stuff! Notice that not long ago, the US produced over 1/2 the world’s petroleum. Yikes. Unfortunately, the global production curve is heading in the same direction that the US production curve followed some years ago.
Let’s see. What might happen at that point? Well, world supply is expected to actually start decreasing and here we’ve got a 6+ billion world population headed north of 9 billion…3 billion of them all looking to go from relatively impoverished to developed/industrialized nations. Less oil, more people, higher rate of consumption per capita…well, you get the idea.
How bout getting after ‘dem there renewables, eh? Wind turbine, anyone? Electric cars? Policy makers who can push forward a real energy policy that focuses on driving forward higher efficiency vehicles, construction standards, and alternate forms of transportation?
Anyone up for more aggressive subsidies for scientific research on (1) wind power (2) solar power (3) batteries and other means to save/transport power (4) electric vehicles.
Update: Some good news in the graph to the left. Vehicle miles on highways in US. Notice the flattening? Sweetness! (Img S0urce).
Fortunately, there are a lot of really smart people out there working very hard on solving this problem. As oil prices continue to climb, more and more smart people will find their way into this field. It’s just disappointing that news media & the general public isn’t quite there yet. Ya’ll policy makers, come on now, you can help out, too!
While we’re putting together a wishlist, can we please drop the ‘corny’ joke of the oil alternative that comes from the same stuff that we use to make tortillas? I mean, I get it. Corn can make fuel. But really? We’re using up government subsidies, plant fertilizers (which come from oil), water, and our most valuable food-producing topsoil in order to entice a Food plant (corn) to convert sunlight into an edible substance. And then we’re going to turn that food into gasoline to feed our cars? All the while, corn (the food, not the ethanol) prices and just about every other commodity price has skyrocketed in the last few months. I mean, okay, as a stopgap it sure is a nice party trick that we can turn corn into fuel. And that’s cool, it really is. But if we’re really going to put our political might and economic prowess behind a plan to offset the impending global energy ‘whoops, why didn’t we fully see this coming, type of nightmare’….wouldn’t we put that effort & global fortitude into something more sustainable and rational than turning water and oil into corn and then turning it into a gas substitute? Again, I also understand that the corn fuel can be produced domestically and that is a plus. But to the detriment of figuring out other, more effective solutions. Shouldn’t we at least VERY aggressively push the electric car agenda, or the wind turbine agenda??? Shucks.
Oh yeah, and while we’re at it…we gotta take a look at the water scarcity issue. Say, oh, maybe in about 2014, I’d be willing to wild-guess that water’s going to be as big a societal concern as our oil and global climate volatility. Ya know, cause pollution won’t ever harm the global oil supply. But water, now that’s another thing. Just ask the guys in Yemen and Saudi what happens when population growth causes water demand to exceed supply.
I guess that begs an interesting question. Would you prefer to be the country with 5% of the world’s population that consumers 1/4 of its oil, importing $600 billion of it annually, but with a reasonably large amount of available water? Or a much smaller country with lots of oil but almost no water at all? Ya know, you can use oil to desalinate water. But then again, in 2012, we’ll be needing that oil for our plastic bags and as a supplement to our 80% corn ethanol driven high efficiency suvs, right?
The good news is, we’re still early on in this craziness and we’ve got some time to turn it around. Everyone voting in this year’s election?
(Disclaimer: I do not work in any of these fields and I am not even close to being an expert in any of them; I am an uninformed guy watching from afar. Please feel free to enhance, challenge, or re-frame the argument as you see fit in the comments below.)